Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Alvara Research Center Institute released the results of the latest survey regarding the electability of the presidential and vice presidential candidates in the 2024 presidential election. In this survey, a simulation was carried out on three candidate pairs, namely Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, and Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar.
As a result, the Ganjar-Mahfud duo was in the top position, beating the other two pairs.
“Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud Md got 36.5 percent of the vote, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka 30.1 percent, while Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar got 19.4 percent. Then those who haven’t decided yet are 13.9 percent,” said senior researcher Alvara Research Lilik Purwandi Center, Tuesday (24/10/2023).
Lilik said that in general, the Ganjar-Mahfud Md pair was superior to the other two pairs. However, he did not deny that future political dynamics could change the electability standings.
“This of course depends on the strategy of each pair in increasing electoral votes until February 2024,” he said.
He also said that the Ganjar-Mahfud duo was quite dominant in the Gen X and Baby Boomers voter sectors. Meanwhile, among Gen Z and millennial voters, there is quite tight competition between Ganjar-Mahfud Md and Prabowo-Gibran.
“These two generational segments are the largest voter groups in the 2024 presidential election. So extra work is needed to be able to win the hearts of these young voters and increase the electability of each pair,” he explained.
Then, referring to the electability above, the 2024 presidential election will potentially be held in two rounds. For the first round, the Anies-Muhaimin or AMIN duet will fail.
“All pairs still have the opportunity to increase their electability, but the Ganjar-Mahfud and Prabowo-Gibran pairs are predicted to continue contesting in the second round,” he said.
“So it is estimated that the selected couple will only be known in July 2024,” continued Lilik.
It is known that this survey was conducted in the period 1-6 October 2023. This survey from Alvara used a multistage random sampling method with face-to-face interviews, involving 1,517 respondents aged 17 years and over. Samples were taken in all provinces in Indonesia, with the number of samples for each province proportional to the population.
The margin of error is 2.52 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent. The profile of respondents in this survey matches Indonesia’s demographic profile in terms of gender, age, area and religion.
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