Why did Prabowo choose Gibran as vice presidential candidate? This is the Analysis News – 1 hour ago

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Bakrie University Political Analyst Muhammad Tri Andika has his own analysis regarding the decision of the Forward Indonesia Coalition to appoint Solo Mayor Gibran Rakabuming Raka as the vice presidential candidate alongside presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto. Normatively, KIM’s appointment of Gibran as vice presidential candidate is certainly accompanied by electoral, territorial and even political regeneration considerations of young people.

“However, I see that Gibran’s choice is more related to Prabowo’s basic needs in the 2024 presidential election, namely Prabowo’s feelings of insecurity based on his experience in the 2014 and 2019 elections,” said Andika in his analysis, Tuesday (24/10/2023).

In the history of Indonesian politics, Andika explained that Prabowo had listed himself as one of the political figures who had a long career and had and would run as cawapres and presidential candidate four times, 2009, 2014, 2019 and 2024.

Even though there is a trend of increasing electability from election to election, his “destiny” as president has not yet arrived. Of course there were many factors behind Prabowo’s defeat in the 2014 and 2019 elections, starting from campaign strategy, narrative wars, to the figure of his vice presidential candidate.

“However, from the existing factors, I observe that the factor that is most often raised in every election is the factor of “fraud” in holding the election. This is what I see as the source of Prabowo’s political insecurity,” said Prabowo.

“So, it is not surprising that in the 2014 and 2019 elections, the presidential election results were always accompanied by a lawsuit to the Constitutional Court,” he continued.

The University of Indonesia alumnus believes that the two elections, which were often accompanied by lawsuits to the Constitutional Court, strongly indicate that Prabowo has a serious record regarding the administration of elections, especially the presidential election, which is suspected to be steeped in fraudulent practices.

“This is what I see as an important factor in Prabowo’s subconscious. From this premise, it is not surprising that the security and comfort of the election process is a key factor in Prabowo’s victory in the 2024 presidential election. And this can only be obtained by Prabowo, if President Jokowi does not support him. split to anyone but himself,” said Andika.

So, he continued, making Gibran his vice presidential candidate, even though it was risky, was the most realistic and tactical option for Prabowo. His hope is to overcome the trauma of fraud and manipulation in every election he has participated in.

Moreover, according to Andika, Prabowo’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election are arguably greater than in 2014 and 2019. Based on survey results from many institutions, including a survey conducted by Poligov since March 2023, in head to head simulations of Prabowo and Ganjar, Prabowo’s electability is consistent above Ganjar with a distance of 3-9 percent.

With the survey results, Prabowo certainly sees this as strong capital to win. However, this advantage could certainly change if Prabowo cannot ensure political security and comfort in holding elections.

“So, apart from the conflict of interest reasons, the Constitutional Court’s decision which is full of the aroma of nepotism and issues of dynastic politics, for Prabowo, making Gibran, who is actually President Jokowi’s son, as vice president, is the best way to get political guarantees to avoid potential fraud and abuse by state officials. “This has often haunted him,” said Andika.

“That’s why, apart from tactical electoral considerations, Gibran is also the answer to Prabowo’s feelings of insecurity,” he continued.

However, Andika said, Gibran’s advancement as vice presidential candidate does not mean that there are no serious problems. With his status as the President’s son, the potential for misuse of state instruments will always exist.

“We hope that doesn’t happen. The public will be very wary of President Jokowi so that he can place himself in a neutral position and be able to resist various temptations to abuse the power he has for the interests of his son,” said Andika.

[Gambas:Video CNBC]

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